Rolling Returns Explained: Smarter Investment Insights for 2025

Are you still relying on calendar-year returns to judge your investments? It might be time to upgrade your toolkit. Rolling returns offer a dynamic, holistic view of performance, helping Australians make more informed decisions in a rapidly changing financial landscape.

What Are Rolling Returns and Why Do They Matter?

Unlike the traditional method of measuring investment performance over fixed calendar periods (think: “how did my super fund do in 2024?”), rolling returns calculate average returns over overlapping intervals, such as every 3, 5, or 10 years. For example, a 3-year rolling return series for a fund in 2025 would start by measuring Jan 2022–Jan 2025, then Feb 2022–Feb 2025, and so on.

• Smooths out anomalies: By using overlapping periods, rolling returns reduce the impact of outlier years.
• Reveals consistency: Investors can see how often a fund outperforms (or underperforms) its benchmark across various market cycles.
• Essential for volatile markets: With 2025 bringing new market shocks and regulatory changes, this approach has never been more valuable.

How Rolling Returns Are Shaping 2025 Investment Analysis

Australian investors are facing a unique environment in 2025. With the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining a cautious stance on interest rates and ongoing shifts in superannuation regulations, historical performance snapshots are less reliable than ever. Rolling returns help cut through the noise.

For instance, consider an Australian Ethical Balanced Fund. In 2022, it might have posted a standout 12% gain, while 2023 and 2024 saw more modest or even negative results due to global inflation shocks and policy tightening. Looking at only the 2022 figure could mislead investors. Rolling returns, however, would show the fund’s average performance across multiple 3-year windows, revealing whether that strong year was an outlier or part of a sustainable trend.

Here’s why more fund managers and platforms are spotlighting rolling returns in their 2025 reporting:

• Regulatory emphasis: APRA’s updated performance test for super funds now requires a broader, longer-term perspective, making rolling returns a preferred metric.
• Investor demand: With increased market volatility, Australians want to know how their investments hold up in both good and bad times—not just in headline years.
• Transparency: Rolling returns can quickly expose “lucky” years versus genuine, repeatable skill.

Real-World Examples: Rolling Returns in Action

Let’s look at a practical comparison. Suppose two Australian funds—Fund A and Fund B—both post an average annual return of 8% over the past five years. But when you chart their 3-year rolling returns for the period 2015–2025, a different picture emerges:

• Fund A’s rolling returns: Range from 5% to 11%, showing relative consistency.
• Fund B’s rolling returns: Swing wildly from -2% to 18%, indicating much higher volatility and potential risk.

In 2025, with ongoing global economic uncertainty and sector rotations in the ASX, investors using rolling returns can better match their risk appetite and goals with fund selection.

Rolling returns also shine when evaluating superannuation options. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) now scrutinises long-term member outcomes, so super funds increasingly highlight their rolling 5- and 10-year performance. This empowers Australians to compare funds on a level playing field, even if one had a recent “bumper” year thanks to a lucky sector bet.

How to Use Rolling Returns to Your Advantage

• Ask your fund manager or platform for rolling return charts—not just point-in-time numbers.
• Look for consistency and downside protection. A fund with less variation in rolling returns may suit risk-averse investors, while those chasing higher returns might accept more volatility.
• Align with your investment horizon. If you’re planning for retirement in 10 years, focus on rolling 10-year returns to match your timeframe.
• Watch for regulatory changes. In 2025, APRA’s latest super fund performance tests and new ASIC disclosure rules are nudging funds to make rolling returns more prominent—use this transparency to your advantage.

The Bottom Line

In 2025, rolling returns have become an indispensable tool for Australian investors and superannuation members alike. They offer a more nuanced, accurate lens for judging performance, especially as markets and regulations evolve. Whether you’re a cautious saver or a growth-seeking investor, rolling returns help you cut through the noise and invest with greater confidence.