Oil Price to Natural Gas Ratio 2025: Impact on Australian Investors

The energy market is in flux in 2025, with the oil-to-natural-gas price ratio drawing fresh attention from investors, businesses, and policymakers. As the world transitions toward decarbonisation and Australia faces its own unique energy challenges, understanding this critical ratio is more important than ever.

Why the Oil-to-Gas Ratio Matters in 2025

The oil price to natural gas ratio measures how many units of natural gas you can buy for the price of one unit of crude oil, typically using barrels for oil and million British thermal units (MMBtu) for gas. Historically, this ratio has signalled the relative cost competitiveness of each fuel, influenced by factors like global demand, supply disruptions, and policy changes.

• Historical Benchmark: The long-term average ratio hovers around 6:1 to 10:1 (oil price per barrel to gas price per MMBtu). However, in volatile years, it can swing much wider.

• Investment Implications: A high ratio can mean natural gas is undervalued relative to oil, creating opportunities in gas-linked equities, infrastructure, and export markets.

• Energy Policy: Governments, including Australia’s, use the ratio to inform decisions on LNG exports, domestic supply, and renewable integration.

2025: What’s Driving the Ratio Now?

This year, several dynamics are reshaping the oil-to-gas ratio both globally and locally:

• Decarbonisation Push: Australia’s 2025 energy policy updates have tightened emissions targets, increasing pressure on coal and oil while boosting demand for cleaner-burning gas and renewables.

• LNG Exports & Asian Demand: With Asian economies ramping up post-pandemic, Australian LNG exports remain strong, keeping domestic gas prices elevated—even as global oil prices fluctuate due to OPEC+ production decisions and geopolitical tensions.

• Weather Volatility: An El Niño year is driving higher electricity demand, pushing gas-fired generation up and impacting spot prices.

As of mid-2025, the ratio has hovered between 12:1 and 16:1, higher than the historical average but below pandemic-era extremes. This reflects relatively firm oil prices (hovering near US$85/barrel) and persistently high Australian east coast gas prices (A$10–12/GJ), in part due to supply constraints and ongoing export commitments.

What This Means for Australian Investors and Businesses

The oil-to-gas price ratio isn’t just a number for commodity traders—it ripples through the entire Australian economy:

• Energy-Intensive Industries: Sectors like manufacturing, chemicals, and mining are especially sensitive to changes in the ratio. When gas is ‘cheap’ relative to oil, it supports competitiveness and margins.

• Household Energy Bills: While most Aussie homes use electricity, gas remains key for heating and cooking. A higher ratio can signal cost relief—or pain—depending on which way prices move.

• Investment Opportunities: ASX-listed energy stocks, gas pipeline operators, and renewable energy plays can all respond to shifts in the ratio. For example, a sustained high ratio could favour companies focused on gas exploration or LNG exports, while a narrowing gap may benefit oil-linked assets.

Real-World Example: In early 2025, Santos (ASX: STO) saw its share price outperform the broader ASX 200 as LNG export volumes stayed robust and global oil prices wobbled. At the same time, AGL Energy and Origin Energy adjusted their generation mix in response to gas price volatility, impacting their forward earnings guidance.

Looking Ahead: The Ratio’s Role in Australia’s Energy Future

As Australia accelerates its transition to renewables, the oil-to-gas price ratio will remain a crucial barometer. Policymakers are watching closely as they balance export income with domestic supply security. For investors, tracking the ratio can help identify shifts in relative value and risk across the energy landscape.

• Policy Updates: The Australian government’s 2025 National Gas Strategy highlights the need for flexible supply and price transparency—directly influenced by global oil and gas price movements.

• Transition Risks: As more renewables come online, the traditional links between oil and gas could weaken, but in the near term, the ratio will still drive investment decisions and pricing power.