On-the-Run Treasury Yield Curve Explained for Australian Investors (2025)

The on-the-run Treasury yield curve is a staple in financial news and market analysis, but its significance is often overlooked by everyday investors. In 2025, with global interest rates in flux and Australia’s financial markets closely watching US economic signals, understanding this curve is more crucial than ever. Here’s what every Australian investor needs to know about the on-the-run Treasury yield curve and how it could influence your financial strategy this year.

What Is the On-the-Run Treasury Yield Curve?

The on-the-run Treasury yield curve represents the yields of the most recently issued (and therefore most liquid) US Treasury securities at various maturities. Unlike the broader ‘off-the-run’ curve, which includes older bonds, the on-the-run curve is a live snapshot of market sentiment toward government debt.

• Short-term notes: Typically 2-year and 5-year maturities.
• Medium-term notes: 7-year maturities.
• Long-term bonds: 10-year and 30-year maturities.

In 2025, the US Treasury has continued its quarterly schedule of issuing new bonds, making the on-the-run curve a reliable barometer for real-time risk and return expectations.

Why the On-the-Run Curve Matters in 2025

For Australian investors, the US Treasury market remains a global benchmark. Australian bond yields, the value of the dollar, and even domestic mortgage rates can be influenced by shifts in the US yield curve. Here’s why the on-the-run curve is front and centre this year:

• Liquidity Premiums: On-the-run Treasuries are more liquid than older issues, often trading at slightly lower yields. This liquidity makes them a preferred benchmark for global institutional investors.
• Market Sentiment: With the US Federal Reserve’s policy outlook still evolving in 2025, movements in the on-the-run curve offer clues about inflation expectations and recession risks.
• Impact on Australian Rates: The Reserve Bank of Australia continues to monitor US yield curves when setting its own policy. Sharp changes in the on-the-run curve can ripple into Australian government bonds and term deposit rates.

Example: In early 2025, a flattening of the US on-the-run yield curve (where short and long-term yields converge) led to a brief sell-off in Australian equities and a dip in the AUD as global investors reassessed risk.

How Can Australian Investors Use the On-the-Run Curve?

While the on-the-run curve is a technical concept, its practical uses are wide-ranging:

• Portfolio Positioning: If the curve is steepening (long-term yields rising faster than short-term), investors might expect stronger growth or higher inflation, favouring equities and inflation-protected assets.
• Risk Assessment: An inverted curve (short-term yields above long-term) has often preceded US recessions. Australian investors can use this as a warning to review risk exposure.
• Global Diversification: Australian superannuation funds and managed portfolios often hold US government bonds. Monitoring the on-the-run curve helps assess potential returns and currency risks.

Case in Point: After the 2024 US election, a surge in government spending expectations pushed up long-term Treasury yields. Australian fixed-income funds that were overweight long US Treasuries saw a temporary dip in value, underscoring the need to watch the on-the-run curve.

Recent Policy Updates and Trends

In 2025, several key developments have influenced the on-the-run curve:

• US Federal Reserve Guidance: The Fed’s cautious approach to rate cuts has kept the short end of the curve anchored, while fiscal expansion debates have nudged long-term yields higher.
• Global Demand Shifts: China and Japanese pension funds have resumed buying US Treasuries after a pause in 2024, supporting demand for on-the-run securities.
• Australian Market Response: The RBA’s own yield curve monitoring now explicitly references US on-the-run data in its policy minutes, reflecting the global integration of rates and risk.

Conclusion: Stay Ahead by Watching the Curve

The on-the-run Treasury yield curve is more than a technical chart—it’s a real-time pulse of the world’s largest bond market. For Australians in 2025, keeping an eye on this curve isn’t just for the pros: it can inform smarter asset allocation, risk management, and even everyday borrowing decisions.