Old Economy Revival: Opportunities and Risks for Aussie Investors in 2025

For years, Australia’s financial headlines have been dominated by tech upstarts, fintech disruptors, and the promise of the ‘new economy’. But in 2025, the old economy—think mining, manufacturing, energy, agriculture, and traditional banking—has surged back into the limelight. With global supply chains shifting and resource demand roaring, these legacy sectors are rewriting the investment playbook for Australian households and institutions alike.

What Is the Old Economy—and Why Is It Surging?

The ‘old economy’ refers to industries foundational to Australia’s post-war prosperity: resources, heavy industry, banking, utilities, and agriculture. These sectors were considered steady but sluggish, especially compared to the explosive growth of digital and tech stocks in the past decade.

In 2025, several forces are breathing new life into these traditional industries:

• Commodities Boom: Iron ore, lithium, and rare earth prices are up, driven by global infrastructure projects and the green energy transition.
• Reshoring Manufacturing: Australia’s 2024 National Reconstruction Fund has boosted domestic production, particularly in pharmaceuticals, green tech, and advanced manufacturing.
• Banking Stability: The Big Four banks have regained investor favour thanks to improved margins, a strong regulatory environment, and resilient consumer demand.
• Agricultural Exports: Australia’s food and fibre exports are hitting record highs as global populations grow and supply chains diversify away from geopolitical hotspots.

Real-World Examples: The Numbers Behind the Revival

In the first quarter of 2025, the ASX 200 saw a notable shift: resources and industrials outperformed tech for the first time since 2019. BHP and Rio Tinto both posted double-digit gains, buoyed by surging demand for battery minerals. Meanwhile, the Commonwealth Bank reported a 7% increase in half-year profits, reflecting a rebound in lending and low default rates despite higher interest rates.

Manufacturing, long in decline, is seeing a renaissance. The government’s Manufacturing Modernisation Fund, expanded in the 2025-26 Federal Budget, is offering new grants and tax incentives for local producers. This has led to new plants in regional hubs—think pharmaceuticals in Victoria and solar panel assembly in South Australia.

On the agricultural front, ABARES forecasts that farm exports will reach $84 billion in 2025, driven by strong Asian demand for Aussie beef, wheat, and wine. This is a sharp turnaround from drought-affected years and underlines the sector’s resilience amid climate and trade pressures.

Opportunities and Risks for Australian Investors

With the old economy’s resurgence, many investors are reassessing their portfolios, looking to rebalance towards sectors that offer not just growth, but stability and dividends. Here’s what to consider:

• Dividend Yields: Traditional companies—especially banks and miners—are offering reliable, sometimes rising, dividends. This appeals to income-focused investors hit by inflation and rate volatility.
• Inflation Hedge: Resource stocks often perform well in inflationary periods, as commodity prices typically rise with costs.
• Policy Tailwinds: Government investment in manufacturing and infrastructure is creating new opportunities, but also comes with regulatory and political risks.
• ESG Scrutiny: Old economy sectors face growing pressure to improve environmental and social governance. Investors need to weigh the risk of stranded assets and reputational damage, especially in fossil fuels.

Case in point: While coal exports remain lucrative, major super funds like AustralianSuper have accelerated divestment from fossil fuels in favour of renewables and critical minerals. This reflects a broader trend—while the old economy is back, it’s adapting to a world where sustainability and innovation are key to long-term success.

How to Position Your Portfolio in 2025

If you’re considering increasing your exposure to old economy stocks, keep these strategies in mind:

• Diversify Within Sectors: Don’t just buy the biggest miners or banks—look for mid-cap industrials, agribusinesses, and companies leading in decarbonisation.
• Monitor Policy Shifts: Stay alert to changes in government policy, trade agreements, and ESG regulations that could impact sector profitability.
• Balance Growth and Income: Old economy stocks can provide valuable ballast, but pairing them with select growth names ensures your portfolio isn’t stuck in the past.

Ultimately, the resurgence of Australia’s old economy is reshaping the nation’s investment landscape. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting out, understanding the new dynamics of these traditional sectors will be essential to navigating 2025 and beyond.