Inflation is back in the headlines, and with it, inflation swaps have become a hot topic in Australian finance circles. Whether you’re a super fund manager, corporate treasurer, or savvy investor, understanding inflation swaps could be your ticket to smarter risk management in 2025.
What is an Inflation Swap?
An inflation swap is a financial derivative that allows two parties to exchange a fixed cash flow for one that fluctuates with inflation, typically measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In Australia, these swaps are usually structured around the ABS’ quarterly CPI numbers.
Here’s how it works in simple terms: One party agrees to pay a fixed rate, while the other pays a floating rate linked to realised inflation. At the end of the contract, the net payment reflects the difference between expected and actual inflation.
- Payer of Fixed: Pays a predetermined rate (e.g., 3.2%)
- Payer of Floating: Pays based on the actual CPI over the swap period
This mechanism allows investors or institutions to hedge against the risk that inflation turns out higher (or lower) than anticipated.
Why Inflation Swaps Matter in 2025
2025 is shaping up to be another year of economic uncertainty. After the inflation spikes of 2022–23, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has signalled a more cautious approach to rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Federal Budget’s focus on cost-of-living relief and renewed infrastructure investment could keep price pressures elevated.
For Australian businesses and funds, this environment creates both risk and opportunity:
- Superannuation funds can use inflation swaps to match their liabilities, especially for pension products indexed to inflation.
- Corporate treasurers may lock in funding costs or hedge input prices, particularly if they have inflation-linked expenses.
- Institutional investors can take a view on future inflation—swapping fixed for floating if they expect CPI to rise, or vice versa.
With the Australian government’s 2025 budget reaffirming its commitment to inflation-targeting and the RBA reiterating a 2–3% medium-term inflation band, inflation swaps offer a way to ride out policy shifts without betting the house.
Recent Trends and Real-World Examples
Australian inflation swap volumes have surged in the past two years, according to the Australian Financial Markets Association (AFMA). The bulk of activity is concentrated in 5- and 10-year maturities, with super funds and insurers the main players.
Real-World Example: In 2024, a major Australian infrastructure fund entered a 10-year inflation swap to hedge future toll road revenues, which are CPI-linked. By swapping fixed for floating, the fund protected its cash flows from an unexpected inflation spike—a move that paid off when Q4 CPI surprised to the upside.
2025 policy updates impacting the space include:
- RBA’s updated inflation projections: The May 2025 Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts headline CPI at 3.1% for year-end, above the previous estimate.
- Changes to swap margining rules: ASIC’s new derivative margin requirements, effective January 2025, have increased transparency and reduced counterparty risk in the swaps market.
- Super fund reporting standards: APRA’s 2025 prudential standard (SPS 530) now requires detailed reporting of inflation hedging strategies, leading to more swaps being disclosed in annual reports.
Should You Consider an Inflation Swap?
Inflation swaps are not for everyone—they’re complex, often require significant notional amounts, and usually involve sophisticated counterparties. However, if you’re a fund manager, corporate, or high-net-worth investor exposed to inflation risk, they offer a highly customisable hedge.
Key considerations before entering an inflation swap:
- Assess your exposure to inflation—are your liabilities or revenues CPI-linked?
- Weigh the cost of the swap versus the risk of unhedged inflation.
- Review counterparty credit risk, especially under the new ASIC rules.
- Factor in tax and accounting implications, which can be complex for derivatives.
With inflation expectations still volatile, many experts see inflation swaps as an essential part of the risk management toolkit for 2025 and beyond.
