Risk-Free Rate of Return in Australia (2025): What Investors Need to Know

In the world of finance, the ‘risk-free rate of return’ is more than just jargon — it’s a vital benchmark that helps Australians judge the value and risk of every investment decision. As we move through 2025, shifting economic conditions and fresh policy updates have put the spotlight back on this foundational concept. Whether you’re a first-time investor or a seasoned market player, understanding the risk-free rate is crucial for smarter, more confident financial choices.

What Is the Risk-Free Rate of Return?

The risk-free rate of return represents the interest you’d expect from an absolutely safe investment — one with zero risk of losing your money or missing out on interest payments. In Australia, this is typically modelled on the yield of government bonds, particularly short-term Commonwealth Government Securities (CGS), such as the 3-month or 10-year bond yields.

• Zero default risk: Backed by the government, these securities are considered the safest assets in the country.
• Benchmark for all investments: Every other investment (from shares to property) is measured against this rate, because they all carry extra risk — and should therefore offer higher returns.
• Dynamic, not fixed: The risk-free rate moves up and down with changes in the economy, inflation, and central bank policy.

In 2025, Australia’s risk-free rate has been directly influenced by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decisions and the government’s ongoing fiscal strategies. As of June 2025, the 10-year Australian government bond yield is hovering around 3.8% — a significant shift from the ultra-low rates seen during the pandemic years.

Why the Risk-Free Rate Matters in 2025

The risk-free rate isn’t just a number for economists. It directly impacts everything from mortgage costs to superannuation returns, and even the cost of doing business. Here’s why it’s especially relevant now:

• Shaping investment expectations: A higher risk-free rate means investors will demand bigger returns from riskier assets, like shares or corporate bonds, to justify the extra risk.
• Influencing borrowing and lending: Banks and lenders use the risk-free rate as a base to set interest rates on loans, including home and business loans. As the risk-free rate rises, so too do borrowing costs.
• Superannuation and retirement planning: Super funds use the risk-free rate to help value their assets and estimate future returns. A shift in this benchmark can affect your retirement balance projections.

For example, in early 2025, the RBA’s cautious approach to inflation led to a series of minor cash rate increases, which nudged government bond yields higher. This, in turn, has prompted super funds to adjust their growth forecasts and has made term deposits marginally more attractive to risk-averse savers.

How to Use the Risk-Free Rate in Your Investment Decisions

Understanding the risk-free rate can help you cut through the noise and make more informed financial decisions. Here’s how savvy Australians are using it in 2025:

• Comparing investment options: Before buying shares or property, compare the expected return to the current risk-free rate. If a share is forecast to return 5% and the risk-free rate is 3.8%, is that 1.2% premium worth the risk?
• Calculating the ‘equity risk premium’: This is the extra return investors expect from shares over government bonds. In 2025, many analysts are using a risk-free rate of about 3.8% when crunching these numbers.
• Setting discount rates: Businesses and analysts use the risk-free rate to estimate the present value of future cash flows — a key part of valuing companies, property, and even infrastructure projects.

For real-world context, consider a retail investor evaluating a new ETF. If the ETF’s expected return is 6% and the 10-year government bond is at 3.8%, the investor must decide if that 2.2% extra return justifies the market volatility and risk of losses. With inflation still a live concern in 2025, this calculation has never been more important.

Policy Updates and Trends Shaping the Rate

The risk-free rate isn’t set in stone — it’s shaped by policy, economic forecasts, and global events. In 2025, several factors are at play:

• RBA monetary policy: The RBA’s ongoing efforts to manage inflation are expected to keep the cash rate — and thus government bond yields — in a slightly higher range than pre-pandemic norms.
• Federal budget outlook: The Australian Government’s mid-year economic update projected increased infrastructure spending and ongoing support for key sectors, which can nudge bond yields up as government borrowing rises.
• Global influences: US Federal Reserve decisions, Chinese economic growth, and global bond market movements continue to ripple through Australia’s risk-free rate.

Investors are wise to watch these trends, as they can shift the risk-free rate and, by extension, the entire investment landscape.

Conclusion

The risk-free rate of return is the financial north star for Australians — guiding investment decisions, influencing loan rates, and setting expectations for everything from superannuation to corporate finance. With 2025’s economic landscape still evolving, keeping a close eye on this benchmark is essential for anyone serious about building and protecting wealth.