North Sea Brent Crude’s Role in Australian Fuel Prices 2025

When you fill up your car at a servo in Sydney or Melbourne, you might not realise your petrol price is shaped by oil extracted thousands of kilometres away in the North Sea. North Sea Brent Crude isn’t just a distant name in the global energy trade—it’s the international benchmark that helps set what Aussies pay at the pump. In 2025, amid energy transitions and global market shifts, Brent’s influence is as strong as ever. Here’s how it plays out for Australians and what to watch this year.

What is North Sea Brent Crude—and Why Is It a Benchmark?

North Sea Brent Crude is a blend of light, sweet crude oil extracted from the North Sea. While its actual production has declined since the 1980s, the Brent benchmark remains the price reference for around two-thirds of globally traded oil, including much of the oil imported by Australia.

• Global Pricing Power: Brent is traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and underpins contracts worldwide.

• Physical and Financial Markets: Both real barrels and paper contracts settle on Brent, making it the linchpin for international oil pricing.

• Australian Imports: Most crude and refined fuel Australia imports from Asia is priced off Brent, not regional sources.

2025: New Pressures and Policies Shaping Brent’s Role

The Australian fuel market doesn’t exist in a vacuum—2025 brings a new set of pressures that make Brent even more relevant:

• Global Supply Shocks: Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have caused periodic Brent price spikes. In early 2025, Brent hovered between US$85–95 per barrel after supply disruptions in the Red Sea increased shipping risks and costs.

• Decarbonisation and Aussie Policy: Australia’s Fuel Security Service Payment (FSSP) scheme, extended in the 2024–25 Federal Budget, ensures local refineries are protected from extreme Brent volatility, but consumers still see pump price movements almost weekly.

• Currency Movements: The AUD/USD exchange rate has remained volatile due to central bank moves and trade imbalances, amplifying Brent-driven price changes for local motorists.

In April 2025, for example, a 7% Brent price jump following an OPEC+ production cut translated to an average 10c per litre increase at Australian bowsers within days. The ACCC’s latest monitoring report confirmed Brent remains the primary global price driver, overshadowing local production or domestic fuel taxes.

How Brent Impacts Aussies Beyond the Bowser

Brent’s reach isn’t limited to car owners. Its price ripples through every corner of the Australian economy:

• Transport and Logistics: Higher Brent means rising costs for freight, aviation, and shipping, putting pressure on supermarket prices and online deliveries.

• Inflation Watch: The RBA flagged global oil price surges as a key upside risk for inflation in its February 2025 monetary policy statement, warning that another Brent rally could delay interest rate cuts.

• Energy Transition: As Australia ramps up EV adoption and renewable investments, Brent volatility highlights the economic incentive to diversify away from imported oil, a point not lost on policymakers or consumers feeling the pinch.

Real-world example: In March 2025, Sydney-based logistics firm Send-It Logistics added a 3% fuel surcharge to all deliveries, citing ‘unpredictable Brent crude swings’ as the main driver. Meanwhile, Qantas updated its fuel hedging strategy to guard against further Brent surges, underscoring the benchmark’s impact well beyond petrol stations.

Looking Forward: What Should Aussies Watch in 2025?

As global energy markets grow more complex, Brent’s influence on Australian fuel prices is likely to persist for years—even as the world transitions to greener alternatives. For now, Aussies should keep an eye on:

• Brent Market Moves: OPEC+ decisions, global conflicts, and supply chain bottlenecks all feed into Brent’s price trajectory.

• Government Policy: Any changes to fuel excise, refinery subsidies, or strategic fuel reserves could alter how Brent’s swings hit your wallet.

• Exchange Rate Shifts: A weaker Aussie dollar amplifies Brent-driven cost increases.

Understanding Brent’s ongoing relevance helps Australian households and businesses plan for future cost shifts and take advantage of opportunities as the nation’s energy mix evolves.