M3 Money Supply in Australia: 2025 Trends & Economic Impact

The term ‘M3’ might not grab headlines like interest rates or inflation, but for anyone keeping an eye on Australia’s financial pulse in 2025, it’s a metric that deserves attention. The M3 money supply measures the total amount of cash, bank deposits, and broad liquid assets circulating in the economy. As the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recalibrates its approach to monetary policy amid global uncertainty, understanding M3 is more relevant than ever for investors, businesses, and households alike.

What Is M3 and Why Does It Matter?

At its core, M3 is the broadest official measure of money in Australia. It includes:

• Physical currency (notes and coins)

• All deposits at banks (savings, current, fixed-term)

• Deposits at building societies and credit unions

Unlike narrower measures like M1 (just physical cash and at-call deposits), M3 captures almost everything that can be quickly converted to cash. Policymakers and economists use M3 to gauge the underlying liquidity in the financial system. When M3 is growing rapidly, it often signals more spending, lending, and investment—sometimes leading to inflationary pressures. When it contracts or stagnates, it can be a warning sign for economic slowdown.

M3 in 2025: The Latest Data and Policy Shifts

The start of 2025 has seen the RBA continue its shift towards a more data-driven, transparent approach to monetary policy. After a period of elevated inflation post-pandemic, the RBA’s tighter stance in 2023-24 helped cool consumer prices, but also led to slower M3 growth as lending conditions tightened.

According to recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, M3 grew at an annual rate of 3.1% in the first quarter of 2025, down from its pandemic-era highs of 10-12%. The RBA’s latest Financial Stability Review highlights several factors influencing this trend:

• Higher interest rates: With the official cash rate holding at 4.10%, households and businesses are borrowing less, reducing the expansion of broad money.

• Slower housing credit growth: Tighter lending standards and cooling property prices have curbed mortgage lending, a major driver of M3 in previous years.

• Government fiscal settings: The 2024-25 Federal Budget’s continued focus on deficit reduction is limiting the injection of new funds into the economy, further slowing M3 growth.

While Australia’s M3 growth is now more in line with pre-pandemic averages, the RBA has signalled it will monitor broad money closely. A sudden acceleration could revive inflation risks, while a sharp slowdown may prompt calls for easing.

How M3 Affects Your Wallet and Investment Strategy

Why should everyday Australians care about M3? Because its movements ripple through the economy, shaping everything from mortgage rates to sharemarket returns.

• Interest rates and home loans: When M3 is growing quickly, banks have more funds to lend, sometimes leading to looser credit and lower rates. If M3 stalls, expect tighter lending and potentially higher borrowing costs.

• Inflation and savings: Rapid M3 growth can precede higher inflation, eroding purchasing power. Savers may need to look for inflation-beating returns in this environment.

• Investment markets: A healthy, steady rise in M3 often supports growth in equities and property values. Conversely, a shrinking M3 may signal caution for risk assets.

For example, during the 2020-21 stimulus-fuelled surge in M3, Australian house prices and the ASX soared. In contrast, the post-2023 period of restrained M3 growth has brought more subdued asset returns and heightened market volatility.

Where to Next? The Outlook for M3 and the Economy

With the RBA balancing inflation risks against the need to support growth, M3 will remain a key economic barometer in 2025. Analysts expect moderate growth to continue, reflecting cautious consumer behaviour and the impact of recent policy moves. Any surprises—such as a sharp rate cut, major fiscal stimulus, or global economic shocks—could quickly shift the M3 trendline.

For households and investors, keeping an eye on M3 offers valuable clues about the direction of borrowing costs, asset prices, and broader economic health. In an era of rapid change, understanding the flow of money is more important than ever.