Like-for-Like Sales in Australia: 2025 Insights & Business Impact

When you’re sizing up how an Australian business is really performing, few metrics cut through the noise like like-for-like sales. In a market where expansion, acquisitions, and inflation can easily cloud the picture, this measure strips it back to basics. But what are like-for-like sales, why do they matter more than ever in 2025, and what should you look out for as an investor, business owner, or keen market watcher?

What Are Like-for-Like Sales?

Like-for-like (LFL) sales, sometimes called comparable or comp sales, are a measure of sales growth that focuses only on outlets or stores open during both the current and previous comparable periods. In other words, it’s a way to assess how existing operations are performing, excluding the impact of newly opened, closed, or significantly renovated locations.

This metric is especially popular in the Australian retail, hospitality, and supermarket sectors, where expansion or store churn can mask true underlying trends. For example, if a national retailer opened 30 new stores this year, their overall sales might jump—but like-for-like sales tell you if shoppers are actually spending more at the established stores.

• Helps identify genuine organic growth
• Strips out noise from new store openings or closures
• Gives investors a clearer picture of core business health

Why Like-for-Like Sales Matter in 2025

2025 is shaping up to be a year of economic readjustment in Australia. After a period of inflation volatility and interest rate hikes, both consumers and businesses are reassessing their spending. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has noted a shift in retail dynamics, with discretionary spending tightening and essentials holding firm.

For example, major supermarket chains like Woolworths and Coles have reported low single-digit like-for-like sales growth in early 2025, even as total revenue increased due to new store rollouts and price inflation. This highlights the value of the LFL metric: it reveals whether growth is coming from genuine customer activity, or simply from expansion and higher prices.

For listed companies, like-for-like sales growth is closely watched by analysts and investors. In 2025, with competition from international retailers (think Aldi and Costco) heating up, and cost-of-living pressures on Australian households, LFL sales are a crucial signpost for sustainable business performance.

• Investors use LFL data to judge if a business model is working before backing further expansion.
• Business owners track LFL sales to measure the success of new strategies, loyalty programs, or product ranges.
• Industry observers can spot sector-wide shifts, such as the recent uptick in LFL sales for discount retailers versus stagnation in premium segments.

Reading Between the Lines: Pitfalls and Trends

Like-for-like sales aren’t infallible. In 2025, there are a few traps and trends worth noting:

• Inflation’s Role: Rising prices can inflate LFL figures, giving a false sense of growth if volume is flat or falling. Smart analysts now look at both value and volume LFL data.
• Omnichannel Blending: As e-commerce continues to boom, many retailers now report combined online and in-store LFL sales. This can mask weaker performance in physical stores, so always check the breakdown where available.
• Renovations and Disruptions: Stores undergoing major renovations or affected by external factors (think floods or bushfires) are often excluded from LFL calculations. The definition of ‘comparable’ can vary between companies, so always check the fine print in 2025 annual reports.
• Regulatory Impact: New Fair Work wage rules and energy policy changes in 2025 are affecting operating costs. This can pressure margins even if LFL sales are rising, so LFL must be read alongside profit data.

Real-world example: In February 2025, JB Hi-Fi reported a 2.1% rise in like-for-like sales across its Australian stores, but noted that electronics demand was softening as consumers reined in discretionary purchases. Their ability to hold LFL growth in a tough market impressed investors, but management cautioned that margin pressure from higher wages and supply chain costs remains a challenge.

How to Use Like-for-Like Sales for Smarter Decisions

Whether you’re considering investing in ASX-listed retailers, running a multi-site business, or benchmarking your competitors, here’s how to make the most of LFL sales data in 2025:

• Compare apples with apples: Look for companies that clearly define their LFL calculation and maintain consistency year to year.
• Dig into volume vs. value: Are sales growing because customers are buying more, or just paying higher prices?
• Watch for external factors: Factor in economic policy shifts, wage changes, and consumer confidence indices for a broader view.
• Track trends over time: One strong or weak quarter doesn’t make a trend. Look at LFL sales over several periods to spot genuine momentum.

Conclusion

Like-for-like sales are the sharpest tool in the box for cutting through headline growth and understanding what’s really happening inside Australian businesses. In a year of shifting consumer habits, evolving regulation, and economic uncertainty, this metric is more vital than ever. Whether you’re an investor, a business owner, or just a curious observer, keeping an eye on LFL sales in 2025 will help you separate the winners from the also-rans in Australia’s dynamic marketplace.