Hydrocarbons in Australia: 2025 Economic and Environmental Outlook

Australia’s hydrocarbon sector is at a crossroads. As the world pivots towards cleaner energy, hydrocarbons—oil, natural gas, and coal—remain central to Australia’s economy and energy mix. But how are policy changes, global demand, and environmental pressures shaping the future of hydrocarbons in 2025?

The Economic Backbone: Hydrocarbons in 2025

Hydrocarbons have long been a pillar of Australia’s export economy. In 2024, LNG exports alone contributed over $90 billion to the national economy, supporting thousands of jobs in Queensland, Western Australia, and the Northern Territory. The sector’s influence extends beyond exports—hydrocarbons underpin domestic manufacturing, energy security, and regional development.

• LNG Exports: Australia remains one of the world’s top LNG exporters, with growing demand from Asian markets.

• Oil and Gas Royalties: State governments continue to rely on royalties from hydrocarbon extraction to fund infrastructure and services.

• Domestic Use: While renewables are on the rise, natural gas still plays a major role in electricity generation and industrial processes.

However, 2025 brings new challenges: global LNG prices have softened due to increased supply, and domestic gas prices remain a political flashpoint, especially for energy-intensive industries and households.

Policy Shifts: Navigating the Energy Transition

Australian energy policy is evolving rapidly. The federal government’s 2025 National Energy Transition Framework sets ambitious targets: 82% renewable electricity by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2050. This has direct implications for the hydrocarbon sector:

• New Approvals: Stricter environmental assessments for new oil and gas projects, especially those near sensitive ecosystems.

• Carbon Capture: Increased incentives for carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) projects. Major players like Santos and Woodside are investing in large-scale CCUS to future-proof their assets.

• Export Restrictions: Ongoing debate about curbing new coal and gas export approvals, with some states like New South Wales tightening restrictions.

These shifts are reshaping investment patterns, with some global investors pulling back from fossil fuel projects, while others double down on transitional technologies such as blue hydrogen (produced from natural gas with CCUS).

The Environmental Equation: Balancing Growth and Green Goals

Hydrocarbon extraction and use remain under scrutiny for their environmental impacts—most notably, greenhouse gas emissions and land disturbance. In 2025, public sentiment is increasingly favouring clean energy, with high-profile climate protests and shareholder activism targeting major hydrocarbon producers.

Yet, the sector is responding with innovation:

• Emissions Reduction: Companies are adopting methane leak detection, electrification of operations, and investing in renewable-powered LNG plants.

• Rehabilitation: Stricter rules require hydrocarbon producers to restore sites post-extraction, with financial bonds to ensure compliance.

• Indigenous Partnerships: Joint ventures with Indigenous communities are prioritising land stewardship and shared economic benefits.

For example, the Gorgon LNG project’s CCUS facility in Western Australia is now one of the world’s largest, capturing millions of tonnes of CO2 annually—though not without technical setbacks and public scrutiny over its effectiveness.

What’s Next for Hydrocarbons?

Looking ahead, Australia’s hydrocarbon sector faces a dual mandate: continue delivering economic value while accelerating the transition to a lower-carbon future. Success will depend on innovation, robust policy settings, and genuine stakeholder engagement. For investors, businesses, and communities, understanding the evolving landscape is essential to making informed decisions in 2025 and beyond.