High Minus Low (HML): What It Means for Australian Investors in 2025

High Minus Low (HML) isn’t just finance jargon—it’s a key metric that’s changed the way investors and fund managers build portfolios. As Australian investors navigate 2025’s turbulent markets, understanding HML can mean the difference between average and outstanding returns. Let’s break down what HML means, how it works in practice, and why it matters now more than ever.

What Is High Minus Low (HML)?

HML is a factor developed by Nobel laureates Eugene Fama and Kenneth French as part of their famous three-factor model. In a nutshell, HML measures the difference in returns between companies with high book-to-market ratios (so-called ‘value’ stocks) and those with low book-to-market ratios (‘growth’ stocks). The formula is simple, but its implications are profound:

• High book-to-market (Value): These are typically established companies whose market price is low relative to their net assets.

• Low book-to-market (Growth): Usually, these are companies priced high relative to their assets, often due to expected rapid earnings growth.

• HML: The return difference between a portfolio of high book-to-market stocks and one of low book-to-market stocks.

Why does this matter? Historically, value stocks have tended to outperform growth stocks over the long term. HML quantifies that difference and helps investors understand whether the value premium is alive and well, or if growth stocks are taking the lead.

Why HML Matters for Australian Investors in 2025

For years, the value-versus-growth debate has shaped investing. In 2025, this conversation is especially relevant as economic uncertainty, inflation pressures, and shifting monetary policy continue to rattle markets. Here’s why HML should be on your radar:

• Recent Performance: After a decade-long run for growth stocks, 2022–2023 saw value stocks make a comeback, particularly in sectors like energy, banking, and resources—key segments of the ASX.

• Policy Impacts: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s tightening cycle and the federal government’s 2025 tax amendments have shifted investor sentiment. Value stocks, often with strong dividends and lower debt, are viewed as more resilient in higher-rate environments.

• Portfolio Diversification: Many managed funds and ETFs now explicitly target HML exposure, giving everyday investors a way to tilt their portfolios towards value or growth as conditions evolve.

For example, major Australian super funds like AustralianSuper and Hostplus have published position papers in 2025 highlighting a rebalancing toward value sectors, citing HML as a core performance metric in their asset allocation strategies.

How to Use HML When Building Your Portfolio

Understanding HML isn’t just for academics. Here’s how you can put it to work:

• Factor-Based ETFs: Products tracking the MSCI Australia Value Index or similar indices give exposure to value stocks, effectively capturing the HML premium. Look for ETFs that explicitly mention ‘value’ or ‘factor’ in their names.

• DIY Stock Selection: Investors using platforms like SelfWealth or CommSec can filter ASX-listed companies by book-to-market ratios, building a custom basket of value (or growth) stocks based on HML principles.

• Performance Tracking: Many Australian brokers now report HML factor performance alongside standard indices, letting you see how value and growth are trending in real time.

In 2025, with AI-driven analytics and transparency from the Australian Securities Exchange, even retail investors can access tools that previously were reserved for professionals. For instance, the ASX’s upgraded market data feeds now include monthly HML factor breakdowns for the S&P/ASX 200, letting investors monitor the value premium at a glance.

Looking Ahead: HML and the Future of Investing

While no factor outperforms forever, HML remains a vital lens for evaluating risk and return. As Australia grapples with a ‘higher for longer’ rate environment and new government incentives for value-creating industries, understanding HML can help you anticipate market pivots and position your portfolio accordingly.

Whether you’re a passive ETF investor or an active stock picker, keeping an eye on HML can help you make smarter, data-driven decisions in 2025 and beyond.