Delphi Method in Australian Finance: Expert Forecasting for 2025

In a rapidly evolving financial landscape, decision-makers are under increasing pressure to forecast market shifts and policy impacts accurately. Enter the Delphi Method—a structured, expert-driven forecasting technique gaining traction among Australian finance professionals and corporate strategists in 2025. But what exactly is the Delphi Method, and why is it being embraced by banks, fintechs, and government agencies across the country?

What is the Delphi Method?

The Delphi Method is a systematic, interactive forecasting process that relies on a panel of experts who anonymously respond to a series of questionnaires. After each round, a facilitator shares the aggregated feedback with the group, encouraging experts to revise their earlier answers based on the responses of others. The process repeats until a consensus or near-consensus emerges.

Originally developed by the RAND Corporation in the 1950s for military forecasting, the Delphi Method has since found applications in economics, technology, and—most recently—Australian finance. The method’s key strengths include:

• Reduction of groupthink: Anonymity helps prevent dominant personalities from swaying the group.

• Iterative refinement: Multiple rounds allow experts to reconsider their views in light of peer insights.

• Structured uncertainty: Particularly valuable when hard data is scarce or the future is highly uncertain.

Delphi in Action: Real-World Applications in Australian Finance

Australian institutions are increasingly deploying the Delphi Method for issues ranging from interest rate forecasts to ESG risk assessments. Here are some 2025 highlights:

• Banking Sector: Major banks have used Delphi panels to anticipate Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate movements, helping shape lending strategy amidst volatile global conditions.

• Superannuation Funds: Super funds rely on expert panels to forecast long-term economic growth and inflation, directly informing asset allocation models for millions of Australians.

• Government Policy: Treasury and regulatory bodies have leveraged the Delphi Method in 2025 to map potential impacts of new climate-related disclosure requirements, using expert input to refine policy rollouts.

For example, in early 2025, a consortium of Australian fintechs convened a Delphi panel to predict the adoption curve of CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) in retail payments. Insights from this exercise helped shape product roadmaps and risk models, giving participants a competitive edge as regulatory frameworks shifted.

Why the Delphi Method is Gaining Momentum in 2025

Several key factors are driving renewed interest in the Delphi Method across the Australian financial sector:

• Complexity of Economic Outlook: With ongoing global inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions, and technological disruption, relying solely on historical data is often insufficient. The Delphi Method supplements quantitative models with expert intuition.

• Policy Uncertainty: 2025 has seen major policy shifts, including the RBA’s updated monetary policy framework and new APRA guidelines on climate risk. Institutions need agile forecasting tools to assess potential impacts.

• Digital Transformation: The rise of virtual collaboration platforms has made it easier and more cost-effective to convene geographically dispersed expert panels, increasing the practicality and speed of Delphi studies.

Additionally, the method’s adaptability allows it to be customised for short-term tactical decisions (like credit risk assessment) or long-range strategic planning (such as scenario analysis for 2030 carbon targets).

Limitations and Best Practices

While the Delphi Method offers powerful insights, it’s not without its challenges. Potential pitfalls include:

• Expert selection bias: The quality of results hinges on panel diversity and expertise.

• Time and resource demands: Multiple rounds can be resource-intensive if not managed efficiently.

• Facilitation quality: Poorly designed questionnaires or weak moderation can undermine consensus-building.

To maximise value, Australian organisations in 2025 are integrating Delphi studies with data analytics, ensuring that expert opinion is grounded in the latest empirical trends. Combining these approaches provides a more holistic view—especially when navigating uncharted territory.

Conclusion: Delphi as a Strategic Edge

The Delphi Method is more than just a forecasting tool—it’s a strategic asset for Australian finance leaders navigating uncertainty in 2025. By blending collective expertise with structured dialogue, the Delphi Method is helping organisations anticipate market shifts, manage regulatory risk, and make smarter, future-ready decisions.