Consumer Discretionary in Australia: 2025 Trends, Insights & Outlook

Consumer discretionary stocks and sectors have become a bellwether for Australia’s economic pulse in 2025. From surging travel bookings to the boom in premium homewares and the resilience of big-name retailers, this category is more than a basket of ‘nice-to-haves’—it’s a window into the shifting priorities of Aussie households. With cost-of-living pressures, evolving policy, and changing consumer sentiment all in play, understanding this space is key for investors and everyday Australians alike.

What Counts as Consumer Discretionary?

Consumer discretionary refers to goods and services that aren’t considered essential—think entertainment, fashion, travel, and luxury items. In contrast to ‘consumer staples’ (like groceries or utilities), these are the purchases Aussies typically make when they have extra cash or feel confident about their finances. In Australia, this sector includes:

• Retailers (e.g., JB Hi-Fi, Harvey Norman, Super Retail Group)

• Automotive (e.g., car dealerships, accessories)

• Travel and leisure (e.g., Flight Centre, Webjet, Crown Resorts)

• Restaurants, cafes, and entertainment venues

• Luxury goods and specialty apparel

2025 Trends: How Aussies Are Spending (and Saving)

This year, the consumer discretionary sector is being shaped by a mix of economic headwinds and newfound opportunities. Here’s what’s driving the change:

• Interest Rate Movements: After two years of RBA hikes, the Reserve Bank’s June 2025 pause has given households a breather. Lower mortgage stress has nudged up spending in travel and big-ticket electronics.

• Cost-of-Living Relief: With the Albanese government’s mid-year energy bill rebates and expanded rent assistance, more families are reallocating savings towards holidays, home improvements, and dining out.

• Digital Shopping Surge: Online discretionary sales have grown 11% year-on-year, as platforms like The Iconic and Temple & Webster report record profits. Gen Z and Millennials are driving demand for sustainable and locally-made products.

• Travel Rebound: Overseas and domestic travel bookings are up over 15% from last year, fuelled by pent-up demand and the expanded direct flights to Asia and the US announced in the 2025 Federal Budget.

• Luxury Still Shines: Despite economic uncertainty, luxury brands—from Aesop to Louis Vuitton—are opening new stores across major cities, as affluent Australians continue to splurge on high-end goods.

Policy Updates and the Investment Picture

Government initiatives and regulatory tweaks are also influencing the sector:

• Stage 3 Tax Cuts: Coming into effect on 1 July 2025, these cuts are putting more cash in middle- and higher-income pockets. Analysts expect this will benefit discretionary retailers, especially in fashion and electronics.

• Credit Reporting Reform: New comprehensive credit reporting rules have made it easier for consumers to access personal loans, boosting spending on cars, travel, and home renovations.

• Superannuation Access: The ongoing debate around early access to super for first-home buyers and hardship continues to influence big-ticket discretionary purchases, as some younger buyers dip into their retirement savings for major expenses.

• Share Market Performance: The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary index is up 8% year-to-date (as of June 2025), outpacing staples and resources, with companies like Wesfarmers and ARB Corporation leading the charge.

How to Navigate the Consumer Discretionary Sector in 2025

Whether you’re an investor or just trying to make sense of your own spending, here’s how to stay smart about consumer discretionary in the current landscape:

• Track Interest Rates: Keep an eye on RBA announcements, as rate changes quickly filter through to household budgets and sector performance.

• Watch for Government Announcements: Energy rebates, tax changes, and consumer credit reforms can all spark spending shifts.

• Diversify Investments: Consider diversified ETFs or managed funds with exposure to top-performing retailers, travel stocks, and luxury brands—but be mindful of volatility as consumer confidence ebbs and flows.

• Budget for Enjoyment: With a little extra breathing room in 2025, it’s okay to enjoy some non-essential spending—just make sure it aligns with your long-term financial goals.