Stagflation—that unsettling mix of high inflation and economic stagnation—has re-entered the Australian economic conversation in 2025. Unlike the familiar narrative of inflation following a booming economy, stagflation is a tricky beast: prices keep rising, but jobs, wages, and growth stall. It’s a double-whammy that can leave households and businesses squeezed from both ends.
What Is Stagflation and Why Is It Back in 2025?
Stagflation isn’t just an economic buzzword. It’s a real-world scenario where the cost of living climbs while economic growth slows to a crawl (or even reverses). Historically, Australia dodged the worst of stagflation in the 1970s, but global shocks and local pressures in 2025 have brought the risk back to centre stage.
- Inflation remains stubbornly above the RBA’s 2–3% target range, hovering around 4.2% in Q2 2025, fuelled by lingering supply chain disruptions, elevated energy costs, and persistent rental shortages.
- Economic growth has slowed sharply, with GDP forecasts downgraded to just 1.1% for the year—barely keeping pace with population growth.
- Unemployment is creeping up, with the ABS reporting a 4.6% jobless rate in April 2025, and underemployment ticking higher as businesses trim hours.
The result? Aussie households are being hit by higher grocery bills, rising rents, and flatlining wages all at once.
How Stagflation Impacts Everyday Australians
Stagflation isn’t just an abstract economic condition—it has real, tangible effects on people’s everyday lives. Here’s how it’s showing up across the country in 2025:
- Cost-of-living pressure: From the supermarket checkout to petrol stations, prices are still rising. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reports food inflation at 5.1% year-on-year, and average household energy bills are up 12% compared to 2024.
- Job insecurity: Businesses, especially in retail and hospitality, are freezing hiring or cutting back staff hours. Even sectors like construction and finance are seeing slower growth, with fewer promotions and pay rises on offer.
- Mortgage and rent stress: While the RBA has paused rate hikes, interest rates remain elevated. Variable mortgage holders are forking out hundreds more each month compared to two years ago. For renters, vacancy rates in Sydney and Melbourne are still below 1%, pushing rents to record highs.
Take the example of the Nguyen family in Melbourne: their grocery bill is up $40 a week, their rent jumped by $70 a fortnight at lease renewal, and despite working extra shifts, their combined take-home pay hasn’t kept pace with rising expenses. Their story is becoming all too common in 2025.
How Policy Makers Are Responding—And What You Can Do
Stagflation presents a policy headache. Normally, the RBA would raise interest rates to fight inflation—but that risks further slowing growth and driving up unemployment. The 2025 Federal Budget tried to thread the needle, with targeted cost-of-living relief (including a $300 energy rebate for eligible households) and investments in housing supply, but economists warn these are medium-term fixes at best.
So what can you do to protect your financial health during stagflation?
- Audit your budget: Identify areas where you can trim spending—think subscriptions, utilities, and discretionary purchases. Comparison shopping for essentials is more valuable than ever.
- Boost emergency savings: If you can, direct extra funds into a high-interest savings account to buffer against unexpected expenses or job loss.
- Consider fixed-rate options: Whether it’s locking in part of your mortgage or negotiating fixed-rate utilities, predictability can help manage rising costs.
- Upskill and diversify income: With job security under threat, look for ways to upskill or add a side income stream. Short courses, freelancing, or even gig work can offer extra security.
Businesses, too, are adapting: many are revisiting supplier contracts, renegotiating leases, and exploring automation to manage rising input costs without cutting jobs.
Looking Ahead: The Stagflation Challenge
While economists are divided on how long stagflation could persist, most agree it’s likely to remain a risk through the rest of 2025. The RBA and Federal Government face tough choices—balancing inflation-fighting measures with the need to support jobs and growth.
For everyday Australians, staying informed and nimble is crucial. The coming months will test household budgets, business resilience, and policy effectiveness. By taking proactive steps now, you can weather the stagflation storm and position yourself for a stronger financial future.
